(by Emily Donahue)
This is always an exciting time of year at RANE and Stratfor. We’re getting ready to publish the 2020 Fourth Quarter Forecast on September 28, 2020. It’s full of valuable insight on major events and what businesses and individuals need to know to successfully navigate global geopolitics. The fourth quarter is often filled with a rush of breaking news.
For instance, in 2019 between October and December there was an uptick in cartel violence in Mexico, a furious negotiation over US-China tariffs, Boris Johnson won the UK general election and Brexit was … the United States House of Representatives launched an impeachment inquiry over President Donald Trump’s phone conversation with with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which led shortly thereafter to a formal impeachment. Hurricanes battered the Atlantic and in the Pacific, the 2019 typhoon season became the costliest on record. A year of protests, from Hong Kong and Chile to Ecuador to Paris and Ethopia came to a head and left several dead. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed in a raid by US troops. Argentina voters turned out in droves for a presidential election they hoped would solve the nation’s economic crisis. North Korea repeatedly launched missiles after talks with the US on sanctions and nuclear restrictions stalled. So many stories. So many events forecast by our Stratfor analysts.
For the 2020 fourth quarter, which will close a historic year of global crises, our analysts are watching for geopolitical shifts that will define 2021. Many nations from Iran and North Korea to China, Russia and even the UK and EU, are taking a “wait and see” as to who will win the U.S. Presidential election.
Israel, for example, “will watch the US election very carefully, and decide if it needs to escalate against Iran if it thinks President Trump might lose,” says Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Ryan Bohl.
Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on economies and health systems worldwide.
“EU governments will extend welfare measures (such as furlough schemes) and announce new rounds of stimulus spending,” says Senior European analyst, Adriano Bosoni. “This to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic, but the strategy will come at a high cost because public debt and fiscal deficit levels will worsen across the continent.”
Rivalries and alignments may shift.
“In Belarus, President Lukashenko’s domestic challenges will drive him closer to Russia,” says Senior Global Analyst, Matthew Bey, “in fact, closer economic and political integration between the two countries could occur within the fourth quarter of 2020.”
“At the India-China border,” says Sim Tack, Senior Global Analyst, “the risk for low-level military escalations remains high, as Chinese and Indian forces continue to try and out-maneuver each other in the Ladakh region, but during the fourth quarter the harsh Himalayan winter will force a pause in developments on the ground.”
And protests aroudn the world may escalate.
“In Hong Kong,” writes Asia Pacific Analyst, Evan Rees, “postponed elections will allow Beijing and local authorities to further restrict avenues for dissent in the city and pursue measures to weaken pro-democracy forces.”
Stratfor’s 2020 4th Quarter Forecast is published Monday September 28, 2020. This is a critical tool for businesses and professionals who want to understand the "why" behind what's happening now, and mitigate risks for what happens next. Are you a Business? Click here to learn more about how RANE is helping clients during the coronavirus crisis. Are you an Individual? Click here to read all of Stratfor's forecasts and subscribe.