AUSTIN, TX – Stratfor, the world’s leading geopolitical intelligence firm, forecasts escalating trade pressure, stalled negotiations and growing consequences to United States unilateralism in the final quarter of 2018 as the White House carries its controversial trade policy into more extreme territory. Stratfor’s 2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast builds upon the firm’s Annual Forecast which identified the aggressive U.S. trade agenda and emerging coalition between China and Russia as key developments that would shape the international system for the year.
“China is already bracing for an escalation in U.S. economic pressure this quarter and will not cave to demands on deeper structural reform. That means more tariffs ahead,” said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. “Beijing has responded in kind to tariffs to date, but will also have to resort to more indirect retaliatory measures, including building regulatory impediments to U.S. goods and companies, in this next phase of the trade war.”
"Turkey, faced with already low reserves, a ballooning current account deficit and maturing corporate debt takes the cake when it comes to emerging market risk this quarter."
While the U.S. and China prepare to weather the economic storm for the remainder of the year, emerging markets and countries already vulnerable to weak currencies will face a particularly stressful quarter. “Turkey, faced with already low reserves, a ballooning current account deficit and maturing corporate debt takes the cake when it comes to emerging market risk this quarter,” added Goujon. Stratfor also identifies Argentina, India, South Africa and Brazil as other stressed emerging markets to watch.
Additional geopolitical trends and developments Stratfor forecasts for the fourth quarter include:
• global oil supplies growing tighter,
• trouble on the North Korean front,
• the power struggle within Iran,
• Russia’s exposure in Syria,
• bumps in China’s Belt and Road,
• Mexico’s AMLO era beginning, and
• Ethiopia driving change in East Africa.
Designed to help Fortune 500 companies, government agencies and globally engaged professionals across industries anticipate risks, develop mitigation plans and identify new opportunities, Stratfor’s complete 2018 Fourth-Quarter Forecast is now available at Stratfor Worldview. Correct calls from Stratfor’s 2018 Annual Forecast thus far include: extra strain as high maturity rates are appied to overlapping corporate and local debts in China; increased Russian outreach and engagement with China, especially in the defense sector that resulted in joint military exercises; strategic competition with China driving India to make increased overtures to the U.S. and Japan on security; and Venezuelans continuing to leave the country rather than protesting against the government.
As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence firm, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Information about individual, team and enterprise membership is available at Stratfor.com.